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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 78

New York Jets 7 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 7-B.Mann punts 57 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model