Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 13 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 3-M.Haack punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.47 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP

KICK -1.69 EP

22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model