Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 80

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to BUF 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 33 for 5 yards (34-J.Hardee, 43-D.Phillips). PENALTY on BUF-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.79 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model