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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 65

New York Jets 7 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 7-B.Mann punts 54 yards to BUF 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 28 for 17 yards (1-K.Nacua).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.89 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP