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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 85

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 7-B.Mann punts 41 yards to BUF 44, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 85, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 43, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model