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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Monday 2019-12-23 · 20:15 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

GB
38.5%
MIN
61.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIN: Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.289 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.134 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • GB defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 24
–
MIN 26
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

GB

Yosuah Nijman T Out Elbow
Dean Lowry DE Questionable Ankle

MIN

Dalvin Cook RB Out Chest
Alexander Mattison RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 23
–
MIN 10

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:14 FG MIN (13:14) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. GB 0 – MIN 3
  • Q1 02:05 FG GB (2:05) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 3 – MIN 3
  • Q2 13:39 TD MIN (13:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – MIN 9
  • Q2 07:04 FG GB (7:04) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 6 – MIN 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG GB (:03) 2-M.Crosby 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 9 – MIN 10
  • Q3 02:09 TD GB (2:09) 33-A.Jones left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 15 – MIN 10
  • Q4 06:01 TD GB (6:01) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – MIN 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (13:14) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 52%

    (8:44) 6-J.Scott punts 33 yards to MIN 9, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:11) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to GB 27, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 87%

    (2:05) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:37) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to GB 31, Center-58-A.Cutting. 32-T.Ervin to GB 36 for 5 yards (38-K.Boyd).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (7:04) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:05) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to GB 24, Center-58-A.Cutting. 32-T.Ervin to GB 35 for 11 yards (50-E.Wilson).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 52%

    (2:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 19-A.Thielen.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:51) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to MIN 10, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:01) 2-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to GB 45, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (13:44) 2-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to GB 12, Center-58-A.Cutting. 32-T.Ervin MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 12. 32-T.Ervin to GB 12 for no gain (38-K.Boyd).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 18 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:52) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to MIN 23, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (14:14) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to GB 9, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:44) 6-J.Scott punts 50 yards to MIN 33, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:50) 2-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to GB 15, Center-58-A.Cutting. 32-T.Ervin to GB 25 for 10 yards (34-A.Sendejo).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (2:42) 6-J.Scott punts 60 yards to MIN 10, Center-43-H.Bradley. 21-M.Hughes pushed ob at MIN 33 for 23 yards (37-J.Jackson). PENALTY on GB-35-I.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 33. Penalty on GB-39-C.Sullivan, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 15 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 81-O.Johnson. PENALTY on MIN-56-G.Bradbury, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced between downs.