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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(:37) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to GB 31, Center-58-A.Cutting. 32-T.Ervin to GB 36 for 5 yards (38-K.Boyd).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model