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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 23 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 6-J.Scott punts 60 yards to MIN 10, Center-43-H.Bradley. 21-M.Hughes pushed ob at MIN 33 for 23 yards (37-J.Jackson). PENALTY on GB-35-I.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 33. Penalty on GB-39-C.Sullivan, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.75 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP