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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 83

Green Bay Packers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 6-J.Scott punts 50 yards to MIN 33, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.46 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 83, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model