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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 85

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 2-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to GB 45, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.64 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model