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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 9

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 2-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to GB 12, Center-58-A.Cutting. 32-T.Ervin MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 12. 32-T.Ervin to GB 12 for no gain (38-K.Boyd).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP