Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 9 – Minnesota Vikings 10

(9:52) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to MIN 23, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.74 EP
73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model