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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 15

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.12 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model