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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 42

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 6-J.Scott punts 33 yards to MIN 9, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model