4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 62

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 81-O.Johnson. PENALTY on MIN-56-G.Bradbury, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.05 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -1.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model