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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 24

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.27 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model