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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 5

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.27 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP