4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
NE Away

New England Patriots

11-3 HC Bill Belichick
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

1-13 HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2019-12-15 · 13:00 ET Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread -10.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NE
51.1%
CIN
48.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Andy Dalton (CIN): -0.032 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE defense: -0.203 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NE 24 17–31
–
CIN 20 13–27
Projected margin: NE by 4 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 15

NE

Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Knee
Byron Cowart DT Questionable Concussion
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Knee
Ted Karras C Questionable Knee
Jason McCourty CB Questionable Groin
Mohamed Sanu WR Questionable Ankle
Danny Shelton DT Questionable Shoulder

CIN

A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
Renell Wren DT Out Hip
Darqueze Dennard CB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 34
–
CIN 13

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:52 TD NE (11:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 06:17 TD CIN (6:17) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 82-C.Carter for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – CIN 6
  • Q1 00:18 FG CIN (:18) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. NE 7 – CIN 10
  • Q2 03:55 FG NE (3:55) 2-N.Folk 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 10 – CIN 10
  • Q2 00:10 FG NE (:10) 2-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 13 – CIN 10
  • Q3 11:23 TD NE (11:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 15-N.Harry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19 – CIN 10
  • Q3 07:32 TD NE (7:32) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at NE 36. 24-S.Gilmore for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 26 – CIN 10
  • Q4 06:38 FG CIN (6:38) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. NE 27 – CIN 13
  • Q4 05:38 TD NE (5:38) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 33 – CIN 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:21) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to CIN 35, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (:18) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 65%

    (11:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 14-M.Sanu Sr..

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 76%

    (7:14) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to NE 30 for no gain (71-D.Shelton; 51-J.Bentley).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 88%

    (3:55) 2-N.Folk 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:15) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to NE 40, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 16 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:45) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CIN 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-29-J.Bethel at CIN 23.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 15 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 80%

    (:10) 2-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:01) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to NE 24, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu Sr..

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (4:08) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to CIN 28, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 24-D.Phillips.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (12:21) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to CIN 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 24-D.Phillips to CIN 29 for 9 yards (18-M.Slater; 51-J.Bentley).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 45%

    (9:30) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 11-J.Ross III ran ob at NE 39 for 4 yards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 76%

    (6:38) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:11) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to NE 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 14-M.Sanu Sr. to NE 28 for 1 yard (17-S.Morgan).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:13) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →