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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 70

New England Patriots 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(12:21) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to CIN 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 24-D.Phillips to CIN 29 for 9 yards (18-M.Slater; 51-J.Bentley).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.29 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model