Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 66

New England Patriots 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

(1:45) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CIN 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-29-J.Bethel at CIN 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.44 EP
73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model