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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 28

New England Patriots 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:10) 2-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.08 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model