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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:15) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to NE 40, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model