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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 65

New England Patriots 34 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(4:13) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.60 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 23, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model