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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(6:01) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to NE 24, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu Sr..

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model