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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 68

New England Patriots 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(4:08) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to CIN 28, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 24-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.70 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP