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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 16

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(:18) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.64 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 16, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model