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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – New England Patriots 34

What Actually Happened

(5:11) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to NE 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 14-M.Sanu Sr. to NE 28 for 1 yard (17-S.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.16 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model