Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 78

New England Patriots 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(5:21) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to CIN 35, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.16 EP
61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model