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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 30

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.77 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model