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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 43

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(9:30) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 11-J.Ross III ran ob at NE 39 for 4 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.22 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model