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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Monday 2019-12-09 · 20:15 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 9.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

NYG
31.7%
PHI
68.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • PHI offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 18
–
PHI 24
Projected margin: PHI by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NYG

Rhett Ellison TE Out Concussion
Evan Engram TE Out Foot
Daniel Jones QB Out Ankle
Chris Peace DE Out Knee
Jabrill Peppers S Out Back
Corey Ballentine CB Out Concussion

PHI

Kamu Grugier-Hill LB Out Concussion
Nelson Agholor WR Questionable Knee
Derek Barnett DE Questionable Ankle
Jordan Howard RB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 17
–
PHI 23

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD NYG (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 86-D.Slayton for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – PHI 0
  • Q2 09:36 FG PHI (9:36) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. NYG 7 – PHI 3
  • Q2 05:33 FG NYG (5:33) 2-A.Rosas 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 10 – PHI 3
  • Q2 00:35 TD NYG (:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – PHI 3
  • Q3 01:32 TD PHI (1:32) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 17 – PHI 9
  • Q4 01:56 TD PHI (1:56) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 17 – PHI 16
  • Q5 05:13 TD PHI (5:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 17 – PHI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to PHI 34, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:51) (No Huddle) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to PHI 43 for no gain (94-D.Tomlinson). FUMBLES (94-D.Tomlinson), RECOVERED by NYG-55-D.Mayo at PHI 43. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 40%

    (6:07) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to PHI 3, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-37-J.Allen.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:08) 1-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to NYG 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-D.Scott to NYG 43 for 8 yards (50-D.Riley).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (9:36) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 93%

    (5:33) 2-A.Rosas 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:00) 1-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to NYG 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-50-D.Riley. PENALTY on NYG-23-S.Beal, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at NYG 9.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to PHI 41, Center-69-C.Holba. 84-G.Ward to PHI 41 for no gain (17-C.Core).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 20%

    (1:56) 1-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to NYG 16, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-49-A.Singleton.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:11) 1-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to NYG 15, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-39-C.James.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (13:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to PHI 31, Center-69-C.Holba. 84-G.Ward ran ob at PHI 47 for 16 yards (83-S.Simonson).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 20%

    (12:11) 1-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to NYG 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-32-R.Douglas.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-69-C.Holba. 84-G.Ward to PHI 29 for 7 yards (30-A.Hamilton).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:17) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NYG 18, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-G.Tate to NYG 21 for 3 yards (57-T.Edwards). PENALTY on NYG-52-D.Downs, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 21.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to PHI 42, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to PHI 13, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 76%

    (10:00) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to PHI 25, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-69-C.Holba. PENALTY on PHI-32-R.Douglas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 25.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:54) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to PHI 31 for 2 yards (24-J.Love).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to PHI 24, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:19) 1-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.