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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 57

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:51) (No Huddle) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to PHI 43 for no gain (94-D.Tomlinson). FUMBLES (94-D.Tomlinson), RECOVERED by NYG-55-D.Mayo at PHI 43. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.62 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model