Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 68

New York Giants 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to PHI 25, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-69-C.Holba. PENALTY on PHI-32-R.Douglas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.42 EP
75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model