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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to PHI 31 for 2 yards (24-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model