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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(:19) 1-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.55 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -0.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model