Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NYG 18, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-G.Tate to NYG 21 for 3 yards (57-T.Edwards). PENALTY on NYG-52-D.Downs, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.04 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model