Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 94

New York Giants 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(2:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to PHI 41, Center-69-C.Holba. 84-G.Ward to PHI 41 for no gain (17-C.Core).

The Three Options

GO -3.45 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.42 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 94, worth -5.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model