4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 79

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 1-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to NYG 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-D.Scott to NYG 43 for 8 yards (50-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.37 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model