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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 16

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 2-A.Rosas 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 20% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model