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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 1-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to NYG 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-32-R.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.81 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model