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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 70

New York Giants 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-69-C.Holba. 84-G.Ward to PHI 29 for 7 yards (30-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.48 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model