4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 85

New York Giants 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to PHI 31, Center-69-C.Holba. 84-G.Ward ran ob at PHI 47 for 16 yards (83-S.Simonson).

The Three Options

GO -3.54 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 85, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 43, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model