ARI @ BAL — 4th & Data

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HC Kliff Kingsbury

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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh

Sunday 2019-09-15 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

ARI

15.6%

BAL

84.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

ARI offense: -0.222 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
BAL defense: -0.175 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
Kyler Murray (ARI): -0.124 EPA/dropback in prior starts
BAL offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
ARI defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 16

–

BAL 30

Projected margin: BAL by 14 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

ARI

Lamont Gaillard G Out Knee

Jonathan Bullard DE Questionable Hamstring

BAL

Jimmy Smith CB Out Knee

Mark Andrews TE Questionable Foot

Marquise Brown WR Questionable Hip

Tyus Bowser LB Questionable Groin

Mark Ingram RB Questionable Shoulder

Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 17

–

BAL 23

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:12 TD BAL (8:12) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – BAL 6
Q1 02:21 FG ARI (2:21) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 3 – BAL 7
Q2 14:11 FG BAL (14:11) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. ARI 3 – BAL 10
Q2 08:34 FG ARI (8:34) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 6 – BAL 10
Q2 03:53 TD BAL (3:53) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 81-H.Hurst for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – BAL 16
Q3 09:02 FG ARI (9:02) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 9 – BAL 17
Q4 15:00 FG BAL (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. ARI 9 – BAL 20
Q4 12:54 TD ARI (12:54) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 15 – BAL 20
Q4 09:02 FG BAL (9:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. ARI 17 – BAL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 56

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP

p(convert) 65%

(12:12) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 50 yards to BAL 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-28-C.Washington.
Q1 ARI 4th & 13 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(6:43) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 45 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 27-C.Jones. PENALTY on ARI-28-C.Washington, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 35.
Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 43

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 43%

(4:39) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 15-M.Brown.
Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.95 EP

p(convert) 58% p(FG) 98%

(2:21) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 15

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 94%

(14:11) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 47

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 33%

(12:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-D.Byrd to BAL 42 for 5 yards (34-A.Averett).
Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 3

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

(8:34) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(2:54) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 57 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 27-C.Jones pushed ob at BAL 45 for 25 yards (46-A.Brewer).
Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(13:03) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to ARI 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at ARI 48 for 21 yards (4-S.Koch). BAL-31-B.Trawick was injured during the play. PENALTY on ARI-54-C.Marsh, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 27.
Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

(9:02) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 10

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 69%

(9:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(7:40) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 56 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 27-C.Jones to BAL 31 for 13 yards (42-D.Gardeck).
Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 45 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 38%

(3:55) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to ARI 09, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.
Q4 ARI 4th & 16 at the 97 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(3:24) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 59 yards to BAL 38, Center-46-A.Brewer. 27-C.Jones to BAL 45 for 7 yards (47-E.Turner).