Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Baltimore Ravens 17

(2:54) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 57 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 27-C.Jones pushed ob at BAL 45 for 25 yards (46-A.Brewer).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.56 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model