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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:12) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 50 yards to BAL 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-28-C.Washington.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.03 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP