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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(12:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-D.Byrd to BAL 42 for 5 yards (34-A.Averett).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.60 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -3.43 EP
KICK -2.01 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.53 EP
PUNT -1.16 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model