Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 97

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Baltimore Ravens 23

(3:24) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 59 yards to BAL 38, Center-46-A.Brewer. 27-C.Jones to BAL 45 for 7 yards (47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -4.18 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.62 EP
74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 97, worth -5.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model