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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 4

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(2:21) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +3.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.09 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 4, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.95 EP