Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(6:43) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 45 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 27-C.Jones. PENALTY on ARI-28-C.Washington, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 35.

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.04 EP
73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model