4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 3

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(8:34) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.12 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 3, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.18 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP